Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) pending $14 billion purchase of Juniper Networks has garnered robust debate among industry observers parsing out the short- and long-term ramifications of the deal, conversations that are likely to grow louder as the proposed purchase chugs toward conclusion.
A big part of that debate has centered on what a post-acquisition product and service portfolio might look like, which could impact how enterprise customers approach the new, more powerful entity.
HPE and Juniper management have attempted to downplay any product overlap or ongoing continuity concerns that might impact enterprise decision making.
“And on that point, let me be clear: our goal in embarking on this acquisition is not to eliminate products, but to offer enhanced choice and more innovation for all of our service provider, cloud provider and enterprise customers,” Juniper Networks CEO Rami Rahim wrote in a blog post shortly after the deal was announced.
Those arguments have found mixed success among the analyst community, though some are indeed on board with the potential.
Will Townsend, VP and principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, told SDxCentral in an interview that he does not see a significant overlap or upcoming disruptions between platform offerings.
“When you look at data center and you look at campus and branch, the company's portfolios are actually quite complimentary,” Townsend said. “Aruba has not been strong in data center. You could argue that with Pensando they were sort of first to market with that top-of-rack switch, it was sort of their tip of the spear to get in the data center. Juniper brings some data center capability. So that's a nice fit.”
Townsend noted that HPE and Juniper management have both stated “that from a customer standpoint, there’s very little overlap, and you have got to trust their word on that. When this deal does come together, then it’s going to be full disclosure and we’re going to find out a lot more.”
That’s not to say that there will not be some culling of offerings. Townsend said that he does not expect any sort of abrupt end of life for platforms and that “there’s absolutely going to be some roadmap rationalization,” which will most likely come from the combined campus and branch platforms and be impacted by the growing focus on artificial intelligence (AI).
“Aruba Central has been very powerful. Mist has been very powerful from an AI perspective,” Townsend said. “This is just my reading the tea leaves … but if the company were smart, they would combine what they've been able to do with Central, bring in the Mist AI infrastructure and Marvis the AI assistant, and blend that software stack together.”
Townsend added that there will also be “decisions made on access points, and routers, and that sort of thing, and some of this will be a branding exercise, some of this will be a roadmap sort of rationalization-consolidation exercise. But I think it's manageable. … If both companies were super strong in these respective areas, like campus, branch, and data center that would be concerning to me. So that's not a concern.”
“But I disagree with some of my peers that say this is just a share consolidation move,” Townsend said. “Obviously the value to HPE with what Juniper brings with Mist and AI is super important.”
Execution for HPE and Juniper will be key Townsend’s sentiment was echoed by Siân Morgan, research director at Dell’Oro Group, who said she sees “such an opportunity for both companies here.”
“The market on the enterprise side is so fragmented, and that's also why I don't see any issues in terms of competitiveness with the acquisition because of the very fragmented market,” Morgan said. “I think there's a big opportunity.”
Morgan pointed to HPE’s global-wide channel infrastructure, which “the lack of that has really held Juniper back.” She also noted that HPE’s strength in the server, storage, and data center markets are “very nice and complementary” to Juniper’s position with service providers, in the cloud, and with AI.
But, similar to Townsend, Morgan did note that the enterprise switch and campus markets could prove more challenging to integrate.
“There is a big overlap in some of their products, and they're going to have to think very hard about what they're going to do and they're going to make have to make some difficult decisions, because if they don't cut things, it's just going to be complex and it's going to be confusing for customers,” Morgan said. “But if they do cut things, they risk losing business or causing angst for enterprises.”
HPE and Juniper rivals have already pointed to this growing level of angst among enterprise customers working through ramifications of the deal.
“I think for sure that’s created just a degree of uncertainty and a question of, hey, should I consider if I was previously a vendor or a customer of either of those, now is the time to kind of open up and look at other opportunities,” Cisco CFO Scott Herren said during an investor conference late last year. “And we’ve seen our wireless business, our orders greater than $1 million grew more than 20% in the fourth quarter.”
Morgan noted that HPE and Juniper will need to be careful in how they treat this potential discontent.
“I think they have to be very adroit in the way they do this, and it's not something that is going to be easy, and I think it's going to be fairly drawn out,” Morgan said.
Morgan did add that while she is hearing feedback from enterprises over concerns on the lack of product roadmap clarity moving forward, many of those enterprises that have already established entrenched business with either HPE or Juniper “are willing to wait and see and find out what happens.”
“It's not clear so far that it's really impacting business,” Morgan said. “Since they've announced [the deal] it's not clear that enterprises are moving away from either vendor right now. Of course, competitors will say it's an opportunity for us, and I think it is. And some competitors will point to say they’ve won specific deals because of the confusion. But when I look at the numbers, I haven't really seen strong signs of that.”
HPE will need to lean on that potential if it wants to successfully work through the integration process.
“It's not a slam dunk and it's not like one-plus-one-equals-two,” Morgan said. “They're going to have to do a lot of work to make this actually mean more than just the sum of their market shares and there's a lot of risk for that, but I think there's some great opportunity.”
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